Неэргодическая экономика

The article considers the phenomenon of inflation taxes as applied to corporations. It is shown how inflation can lead to stagnation and recession through the mechanism of formation of inflation taxes. A simple procedure is presented for estimating the length of a production and trade cycle with which the economy stays in conditions of nonzero growth and economic equilibrium is not disrupted. The need to introduce a system of differentiated taxation in conditions of high inflation is substantiated.

This article completes a series of works published in the journal «Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences» (nos. 5 and 6, 2007). The relation between the structure of the human psyche and the evolution of society is analyzed. The author shows the organic relationship between the psyche of a particular person and the stages of development of society. This fact allows us to foresee a new stage of global economic development.

The author expands some provisions of his previous article, published in the journal Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences (no. 5, 2007). A multilevel model of consciousness is considered; the mechanism of a person’s ascension along the circuits of consciousness is revealed; the nature of the revealed cross–circuit correlations is analyzed; and the role of complexes and imprints in the formation of psychosomatic health is discussed.

This paper describes an approach to estimating an equilibrium wage and an equilibrium rate of return with subsequent identification of their distortions when actual values of macrofactor prices are formed. The relation of the process of distortion of equilibrium prices to Walras’ Law is demonstrated. The concept of nonequilibrium prices is generalized from three markets: labor, capital, and institutional. The notion of economic market flexibility is introduced and its role in achieving economic equilibrium is ascertained. A technique for determining the “natural” rate of unemployment is proposed. All the methods are validated using the United States, Britain, and Russia as examples.

A conceptual framework and analytical scheme suggested in the present work explain the adverse effect of the tax reforms on economic growth in Russia. The author’s original classification of fiscal reforms, including the concepts of fiscal quasi– and pseudo–traps, offers a deeper insight in the specific character of the institutional change taking place in Russia. A quantitative estimate of the depressive effect of fiscal quasi–traps on national production is given.

The paper proposes and validates an approach to the assessment of equilibrium wages and equilibrium rate of return with the subsequent detection of their distortions when actual values of macrofactor prices are generated. The contribution of price distortions to the emergence of labor and capital markets is investigated and a scheme for determining the “natural” level of unemployment is proposed. All the methods have been validated for the economies of the United States and Russia.

A comparative analysis is performed of the Russian and Western models for the organization of economic science. In the author’s opinion, the Russian model is inferior to its Western counterpart in a number of respects, but the bulk of evidence suggests that our country has every opportunity to strike upon the right path to new frontiers in this sphere of scientific knowledge. Russia has the chance to build a powerful and effective national economic school. Now the fulfillment of this opportunity, however, requires the observance of many preconditions – this is the art of statesmanship.

A general methodology and specific guidelines for analytical prognostic estimates of the influence of tax rate changes on economic growth and the state of the Russian national budget are proposed. A new approach to the evaluation of the effectiveness of the tax system, which factors in the contradiction between its regulatory (productive) and fiscal (budgetary) functions is substantiated.

A simple algorithm for finding Laffer points of the first and second kind, which relies on econometric relationships, is proposed. It has been tested on retrospective statistical arrays of the US, Swedish, British, and Russian economies. It is demonstrated that the fiscal factor was not decisive for Russia’s recessionary economy in transition. The author offers a new understanding of fiscal efficiency.

This paper examines two classes of methods for assessing the state fiscal policy: econometric and analytical. A formal classification of critical states of the fiscal burden is given, and the properties of a country’s production activity and fiscal systems are studied. A two–parameter method is used to perform a retrospective assessment of the critical points of the tax burden and to analyze the specific evolution of the Russian fiscal system during its transition period. The directions and possibilities of applying the proposed techniques to predict the results of state fiscal policy are discussed.