Неэргодическая экономика

Economic reforms of the past few years have substantially changed the sectoral production structure in Russia. A discussion of the economic laws of the transition period («Vestnik RAN», 1998, no.1) is continued. Trends in the transformation of the sectoral structure of the Russian economy are considered. The main stages of economic reforms and the inner logic of their sequence are described.

Economic science emerged more than 2000 years ago and still presents problems for further thought. This article discusses the special character of this branch of knowledge, its specific laws, and the problems facing economists. The author shows that unlike physical laws, most of economic laws are not written in a strong, weak form. In addition, there are no world constants in economic science.

The author analyzed the statistical data supplied by the regional labor offices in Russia and used the results to assess the current state of external labor migration in Russia, to identify the basic trends and problems in the field, to make objective predictions for further developments, and to formulate a number of fundamental approaches to the governmental regulation of the export and import of labor.

Certain theses of traditional imprinting theory are specified in the article. A hypothesis is proposed that, along with basic imprints, there are auxiliary ones that are characterized by pronounced contextualization and explain many human life strategies.

Mistakes made during the formation the public sector of Russia’s economy and the system of its regulation are discussed in the article. The authors show that the Russian executive bodies ignored positive foreign experience during the economic reforms and outline ways to normalize the situation.

The existing system of personnel training in Russia is analyzed. The increasing tendency to fill the market with unskilled labor, the industrial syndrome in the training structure, and the gradual reduction of specialists trained for work in priority economic fields gives the authors of the article cause for anxiety.

Developing and transition economy countries have two specific features: first, the capital deficit problem in these countries is particularly acute, and second, traditional capital redistribution channels either do not work or work poorly. In view of this, economic agents in these countries look for other options of investment market organization, using not very traditional methods for this purpose. One of these in Russia is the institution of regional investment forums.

The article gives a formal and substantive interpretation of Adolph Wagner’s law. Empirical evidence of violation of this law is cited. The role of the Armey–Rahn curve in restraining Wagner’s law is revealed. The Armey–Rahn curve is identified for Sweden and Russia. The paradox of wealth is formulated and a substantive explanation of it is given.

The article reports the results of testing of Wagner’s law for four countries: the United States, Great Britain, Sweden, and Russia. Econometric relation-ships are constructed that can be used to study properties of the Armey–Rahn curve and the Laffer curve. A new algorithm is suggested for finding the Laffer points and Scully points. The evolution of budget policy and the connection of budget parameters with the economic growth rate are examined.

This article has presented a short–term macroeconomic indicator, the index of monetary efficiency, which is an aggregate of two subindices, i.e., monetary stability and monetary freedom. An econometric model has been constructed, in which the GDP depends on the index of monetary efficiency with a lag of 8 months, which allows for the proactive prediction of economic growth. All analytical tools have been evaluated based on the statistical data of the Bank of Russia with a monthly breakdown.