Неэргодическая экономика

Авторский аналитический Интернет-журнал

Изучение широкого спектра проблем экономики

На английском языке
The article proposes a hybrid model for inflation projection that combines econometric and neural network models. At the same time, both factor variables and market markers of consumer price index growth are used as explanatory variables. It has been shown that such an approach makes it possible both to maintain the theoretical fullness of the model and to ensure high accuracy of calculations, which is unattainable when using only one type of model toolkit.
The ‘turnpike hypothesis’ proposed in this article suggests that the trajectory of GDP growth rates is a ‘turnpike‘, which attracts tax revenues of any type. A significant deviation of the rates of tax revenue growth from the turnpike means that this tax has grown unresponsive to the dynamics of the global tax base – GDP. To test this hypothesis, the authors introduce the indicators of surplus return and volatility of tax revenues, which leads them to narrowing the definitions of such terms as budget orientation and efficiency of taxes. To analyze the behaviour of economic agents, the authors construct econometric dependencies of three indirect taxes (VAT, customs duties and excise taxes) on the tax rate (tax burden), GDP and the population income. For the VAT, the tax burden was its nominal rate; for excise taxes, the share of excise taxes in the retail turnover; for customs duties, the share of customs duties in the foreign trade turnover.
The paper considers the next stage of formation of the Russian market of economic journals, which is characterized by its clear division into two segments – external and internal. The external segment contains publications included in the international databases Scopus and Web of Science (WoS), the internal segment covers publications that are not included in these databases. To reflect the changes that have occurred in the market, we upgrade the methodology for compiling the Rating of Russia’s Leading Economic Journals (RLEJ). The innovations affect the subsystem of expert assessment of publications included in the external segment, taking into account the differentiation of Scopus and WoS databases on quartiles, as well as the subsystem of market representation, taking into account the availability of Russian and English versions of journals. We provide the results of the fifth wave of RLEJ rating in the form of a Diamond List (top 13 journals) and a List of Journals of the Second Tier, consisting of 12 titles. We analyze the reshuffling of journals in comparison with previous years; we show that Russia already has 19 economic publications with international certification, of which eight publications have double certification (both Scopus and WoS). We consider several stylized examples of success and failure of journals; this allows us to determine the outlines of a general model for development of publications of the international level. In particular, we review the work of the heads of journals “at the top” – as drivers of their development through establishing external relations and finding financial resources, and their work “at the bottom” — as organizers of local scientific communities and exclusive intermediaries between authors and professional translators. Certain changes are pointed out in the employment relationship with highly qualified translators; now they are characterized by greater flexibility compared to the previous period. We also consider medium-and long-term implications of the emergence of two market segments of Russian economic journals.
The goal of the article is to evaluate different projects of reforming the income tax in the Russian Federation. To carry out this evaluation, the authors developed a three-parameter model which makes it possible to do calculations of the expected effects from different tax reform scenarios. The model is based on the idea that the best reform project simultaneously reduces the assets ratio, increases budgetary revenue and does not pose any risk of the reform’s non–fulfillment. The information array of the research is statistical data on the population’s income distribution. To neutralize distortions, the authors calibrated initial statistical data on distribution in the high–income group (the tenth decile) of the population. The risk of non–fulfillment was assessed through an expert poll. The developed model was used to test four income tax reform projects: those developed by the Government of the Russian Federation, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and the Party “Just Russia”. The application of the model allowed the authors to determine that the best project, according to three parameters, in the project of the Government, which preserves the flat income scale and raises the rate from 13 to 15%. According to the authors, it shows that there are no rational alternative suggestions on the introduction of a progressive income tax scale. They have also found out that the projects of all the political parties that support the introduction of a progressive income tax scale in Russia dramatically overestimate the growth in tax revenues from the implementation of their suggestions due to incorrect calculations of the distribution of the population’s incomes in the tenth decile group. It is concluded that currently there is no consensus between the Russian opposition political parties and the expert community. This prevents them from working out a single and well–developed income tax reform project. The authors believe that at present Russia needs a balanced project of introducing a progressive income tax with multi–step corrections of this tax over an extended period of time (10 years or more).
This article is dedicated to the struggle between major socioeconomic universities (SEUs) of Russia for leading positions in the higher education market. It is shown that only in Russia are SEUs, along with classical universities and technological institutes, the strongest players in the market of higher education establishments. The ranking data of the country’s higher schools of economics for 2013–2016 are given, which demonstrate the escalating competition between the most successful SEUs of Russia, manifested in regular “castling” between the higher education institutions in the top list ranking. The authors emphasize the importance of factors of competitive growth, such as the publication of leading economics journals, the creation of a network of scientific divisions in the structure of universities, the formation of an all–Russia information agenda on their territories, and the development of regional analytics centers.
The focus of this article is the methodological understanding of time in the science of economics. According to the author, this concept has undergone great changes, and the construction of an adequate economic theory is impossible without the correct understanding of the time factor. However, the difficulty lies in the fact that time has a huge number of diverse hypostases.
Ways of improving the legislative framework so as to treat the state sector as an autonomous element of the system of government regulation are considered. In the authors’ view, this should help lay down the analytical and statistical foundations of further interaction between the state and the state sector of the Russian economy. A number of organizational innovations that could promptly raise the effectiveness of the state sector are proposed on the basis of international experiences.
A method for estimating the level of inflation vulnerability and inflation stability is proposed, based on the average operating cycle period. Sectoral niches that are the most exposed to price increases are identified and the role of nonpayments in distorting the real magnitude of inflation vulnerability of Russian industries is shown. The main idea of paper – the simple model of inflation tax and its role for economic growth.
Trends in industry restructuring in relation to different forms of ownership and their effect on the rate of decline in industrial production are examined. The functioning of enterprises of different forms of ownership is subjected to a comparative analysis. The special attention is paid to differentiation of productivity of labor by type of ownership, as well as to the cycle «privatization–nationalization».
Leisure is examined in the context of the so–called Walras law which plays a major part in economics. The author attempts to elaborate and extend the definition of this law to provide a deeper insight into functional characteristics of capitalism and socialism. It is shown that the divide between the two systems runs through the market of leisure, which shapes the genuine cast of an economic system.
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